I have to make a public confession. I traded my own money in Crypto currency. I feel embarrassed to admit that I traded Crypo. I convinced myself to follow the hype. To me speculating in crypto is like the modern day story of the Dutch trading over priced tulips in the 1600s. After a time, there was a lot of hype, but little value. This blog post is about me convincing myself that crypto was worth the money speculating.

Prior to deciding to place my hard earned money into Crypo, I completely ignored the asset class because I thought it had no economic value. My interest in crypto began after a friend told me a story that his friend earned over 200k. I feel for the trap. I felt as if I was missing out on those sweet earnings. After conducting some analysis using python, which I made public here on Github. This analysis was based on no fundamentals other than looking at the prior months of momentum trends of all crypto coins.

Looking at the results of my analysis, convinced me that placing a bet in crypto was worth it. In January of 2022, two month prior to the “Crypto winter”, I decided to follow the hype and take plunge into crypto. At the time, I decided to place my money in a few thousand MATIC, which cost me a few thousand dollars. For the two week, the price was going up. I congratulated myself. I made a great decision, all my analysis worked. Three weeks later, BOOM, it happen, all the crypto coins dramatically dropped in price. I stayed in, because I had the long-term perspective also because of the sunk loss fallacy, I didn’t want to leave. Other the period of the next few weeks the coin fluctuated then became flat on the low side. About a year of holding my money within MATIC and reading an article written by Paul Krugman, I decided to quit. I left and lost money, but not all.

Reflecting back knowing what I know now, would I trade again? Probably not. I think from this experience I learned a valuable lesson. Listen to the elder economists, don’t invest or speculate in something that doesn’t have any fundamental value.

I believe that crypto long-term may have a place in the world. Perhaps, as an international intermediary currency. Moving forward crypto is not an asset class that I will not trade.